POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued) Composition

introduction to sociology  POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued) Composition:

In lecture 37 we looked at the size of population. Lecture 38 shall focus on the composition of population of Pakistan as well as some implications of the Population Planning Program. In the composition of population first of let us look at the age distribution of the people of Pakistan.

Age Distribution

According to 1998 Population Census of Pakistan, 43 percent of the population was of children under 15 years, 53 percent was between the ages of 15-64 years, and about 4 percent was 65 years and over (see fig. 1). This information shows that a big proportion of the population has been of children implying that they are dependents on the economy of the country. About four percent of the population happens to be of old persons, another group of dependents. About one half of the population is that of women, who, with the exception of few, are usually considered as dependents. In this way the age structure of the population of Pakistan shows that majority (nearly two thirds) of them are dependents. Of the dependents, children need special services like health, education, playground, and family care. In this way the young population puts special demand on the resources of the country. Similarly the senior citizens need special services.

Figure 1

introduction to sociology  POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued) Composition:

Sex Composition

According to 1998 Population Census sex composition of the population shows that 52 percent of the total was that of males and 48 percent was of females (see fig. 2). This information shows that there is high sex ratio which means that the number of males per 100 females is much higher than 100 females. This is typical of developing countries which, among other factors, may be reflective of the status of women. In most of the developed countries the situation is quite the opposite indicating a greater proportion of women than men in the population.

Figure 2

introduction to sociology  POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued) Composition:

Male Female

According to 1998 population census of Pakistan 43 percent of the population was of children under 15 years, 53 percent was between the ages of 15-64 years, and about 4 percent was 65 years and over. This information shows that a big proportion of the population has been of children implying that they are dependents on the economy of the country. About four percent happened to be old persons, another group of dependents. About one half of the population is that of women, who, with the exception of few, are usually considered as dependents. In this way the age structure of the population of Pakistan shows that majority (nearly two thirds) of them are dependents. Of the dependents, children need special services like health, education, playgrounds, and family care. In this way the young population puts special demand on the resources of the country. Similarly the senior citizens need special services.

Age and Sex Pyramid

Age and sex distribution of the population of Pakistan gives us a specific type of pyramid which is typical of developing countries (see fig 3). This pyramid has a very broad base indicating a large number of children (43%). In this pyramid one could also see that at the lower ages (0-4) that there does not seem to be much difference between the number of males and females. As we move up the pyramid the number of females starts declining due to various reasons like the neglect of female children, poor health due to bearing of large number of children, lack of facilities for maternal care, etc.

Productive age group 1564


introduction to sociology  POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued) Composition:

43%

Prior to the industrial revolution the age and sex pyramids of the developed countries also looked like those of the present day developing countries. Just by looking at the population pyramid one could easily tell whether this pyramid is that of a highly developed country, a developed country, or that of a developing country (see fig. 4). As one can see from the figure, the base of the population pyramid of a developing country is very broad indicating that the population has a large number of children. The population of such countries has the potential of rapid growth. Sex ratio is in favor of males. Then there is a sharp tapering off of the pyramid whereby it becomes conical. At the senior citizen’s age the proportion of population is very small.

Figure 4

Prior to the industrial revolution the age and sex pyramids of the developed countries also had similar shape as that of Pakistan. Presently although the age and sex pyramids of the developed countries have quite a different shape still they are being called pyramids. A As the countries move on the scale of development, its birth rates start falling and the base of the pyramid does not remain broad and also it does not remain as steep as it was seen in case of developing countries. The bars indicating the male and female distribution start becoming different. The bars indicating the females start becoming longer than those of bars for males. Since the pyramid is no more conical, therefore it indicates that the proportion of old persons in the population starts increasing. On the whole the population of such countries shows slow growth rate.

introduction to sociology  POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued) Composition:

Countries with zero population growth have a barrel shaped pyramid. Here different bars representing age become almost equal except at the top for the senior citizen. The bars at each age for females are either equal to the bars for males or these are longer than the bars for males.

There is also a pyramid showing “negative growth” of population. In this pyramid the base of the pyramid is quite squeezed indicating that there are no children. This pyramid starts bulging out from the middle suggesting some increase in adult population which is primarily due to immigrants entering the country to fill the gap created by the declining fertility of the local population. This pyramid has become comparatively broad at the top due to the increase in the number of old people. Countries with such population have “aging” population.

The present age and sex pyramid of Pakistan shows high growth potential for population. With the future socioeconomic developments it is expected there will be a decline in fertility. With this decline in fertility the lower bars of the pyramid start getting shorter than what was in 1998. Also their length starts becoming equal to each other. The bars on top of the pyramid representing the old people above 65 year start getting bigger than the bars in the previous pyramid (see fig. 5).

Figure 5

Literacy Composition

Literacy has been considered to be a crucial variable in the development of a country. Pakistan started with a very low literacy rate. In 1961 only 17 percent of the population aged 10 year and above was literate. There have been small increases in the literacy rates in the country. Table 1 shows that at the time of third population census (1972) there was small increase of 5 percentage points over the previous population census of 1961 and an increase of small percentage points have been observed at the time of every population census. During the year 2004 literacy rate in the country has been estimated to be at 54 percent.

Table 1: Literacy rate (%)

Year Rate Year Rate_______ .

introduction to sociology  POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued) Composition:

1961 1972 1981 17 22 26 1990 1998 2004 35 40 54 . . .
95

Female literacy rates are much lower than the male population. Similarly literacy rates in the rural area are lower than the urban areas. The literacy situation of the rural women appears to be the lowest.

Despite the fact that literacy rate has been increasing in Pakistan, it is interesting to note that the absolute number of illiterates in the country has also been increasing. The information provided in table 2 shows that in 1961 there were 22 million persons who were illiterate and by the year 2004 this number has increased to 69 million, which is a more than three times increase. During the same period, the literacy rate increased from 17 percent to 54 percent, more than three times increase. It might look ironical to have such a scenario but this reality has emerged due to the rapid growth of population. The high growth rate of population has been one of the important factors that neutralize the achievement of increase in literacy.

Table 2: Absolute number of illiterates (in million)

Year No. Year No. .

1961 22 1990 52
1972 33 1998 55
1981 42 2004 69 .

Distribution of Population

The distribution of population may be looked at from different dimensions: rural-urban distribution, provincial distribution, distribution by different city size, etc. Rural-urban distribution, as seen in the figure 6, shows that as of 2004 every third person was living in cities. At the time of partition every fifth person was living in cities. An increase in urban population has mostly been due to migration of rural population to the urban areas. Most of such migrants come to cities in search of job.

Figure 6

Urban Population

Implications of Population Program

Given the scenario of population growth in the country, the government of Pakistan started population program about fifty years back. Over the years a good amount of effort has gone into it for the creation of awareness about family planning, changing the attitudes of couples in its favor, and motivating the couples for the adoption of family planning practices (the use of contraceptives). As an outcome of government investments as well as through the efforts of NGOs some of the parameters of population are given in table 3. The data show that there has been progress on three important parameters of knowledge about family planning, the use of contraceptives, and fertility rate. It has been found that as of 2004 there were 96 percent couples who were in the know-of family planning but only a little over one third were using some family planning method (contraceptive). There appears to be a big gap between the knowledge about family planning and the practicing of family planning. It has been found that the fertility rate (the total number of children born to a woman during her life time) has declined for example from 5.4 children per woman in 1991, to 4.9 in 1997, to 4.1 children in 2004.

introduction to sociology  POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued) Composition:

Table 3: Population parameters (1991 to 2004) Parameter 1991 1997 2004 .

Knowledge (%) 78 94 96 Use of Contraceptives 12 24 34 Fertility rate 5.4 4.9 4.1 .

Looking at the world situation, the information provided in table 4 shows that the population growth rate (PGR) of the world in 2002 was 1.3 percent, and the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) of 61 percent. In the more developed regions of the world the PGR was 0.1 and CPR 68 percent whereas in the less developed regions the corresponding PGR was 1.6 and CPR was 60 percent. Asian figures show a PGR of

1.3 percent and CPR of 64. Comparing with this situation it looks that Pakistan has yet to cover long distance to come closer to the average figures of Asia or of less developed regions, what to think about the figures of more developed regions.

Table 4: Population Growth Rate (PGR) and Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR) 2002

Regions PGR (%) CPR (%) . World 1.3 61 More Developed 0.1 68 Less Developed 1.6 60 Asia 1.3 64 .

Comparing Pakistan with some of the Muslim countries, the information provided in table 5 shows that Pakistan is way behind Iran, Turkey, Morocco, Indonesia, Egypt and Bangladesh on the counts of CPR, PGR, and TFR. A program which is well accepted in some other Muslim countries, why it is not that much accepted in Pakistan? We have to explore the reasons for such differences.

Table 5: PGR, CPR, and Total Fertility Rate (TFR), 2002

Muslim countries TFR(%) PGR(%) CPR(%) . Egypt 3.5 2.0 56 Morocco 3.1 1.9 58 Turkey 2.5 1.5 64 Iran 2.5 1.2 74 Indonesia 2.6 1.6 57 Bangladesh 3.3 1.7 55 Pakistan (2004) 4.1 1.9 37 .

Keeping in view the existing parameters of population program the population projections made by the government suggest that the population of Pakistan is going to increase from 148.6 million in 2003 to 167.7 million in 2010, and to 195.5 million in 2020 (see fig. 7). Also 2020 is the year when Pakistan is expected to have population stabilization. We shall discuss this concept of population stabilization later. It has been further projected that the population of Pakistan is going to double by the year 2040.

Figure 7


introduction to sociology  POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued) Composition:

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